A Setback for Republicans
The firing of Kristi Noem gave me the idea for this article. But I decided against it. I wanted to put my limited writing time and energy into my building approach for a new American democracy. But a few more events have happened since then. Today I have a strong desire and a better reason to put some Minnesota pieces together — as best I can.
In my opinion, Kristi Noem was fired because she could not create the right kind of political drama to justify an effective federal takeover of the blue state known as Minnesota. The goal was to suspend the state legislature and put Republicans in charge. Sort of like when Abraham Lincoln did this to Maryland when it decided to be a slave state: Lincoln could not politically afford to have a confederate state next to the capital.
Maybe the Minnesota takeover was too lofty a goal. Maybe Ms. Noem never had the talent to pull it off. Maybe the Republican leader interfered too much in her decisions. Maybe the resistance was organized better than ICE. Who knows?
Of course, such a takeover would be unconstitutional as hell. But the Trump 2.0 administration seems to be getting away with more unconstitutionalities these days — as well as making legal changes to better their electoral success in November. Despite losing court challenges, the drop in Republican approval, and Democrats winning most interim elections, the Republicans seem to be forging ahead as if they have some kind of plan in place. I am expecting the gerrymandering math to backfire against them.
I don’t see any way for the Republicans to legally win the November 2026 election. They could be heading for a big defeat, like Viktor Orban in Hungary.
In a related event, the Republicans got their hands slapped by the Supreme Court who ruled that setting tariffs are the responsibility of Congress, not the President. Despite this ruling, there are still Canadian industries that cannot sell to their former American customers because tariffs did not come off. A week ago, President Trump slapped a tariff on all European cars. It seems the Supreme Court decision meant nothing to him. What is to stop him from declaring the November election illegal?
Going back to January 6, 2021
Several times after that date, I challenged Medium political readers with this question: What if the Republicans in Congress not convened on the evening of the debacle?
January 6, 2021 Could Have Been a Constitutional Crisis
No one tried to answer my challenge.
You see, the Electoral College used to be an indirect election of the President. The founding fathers wanted the state legislatures to elect their electors. These electors would convene in Washington DC. They would spend about a week to decide who would be the next American President. The state legislatures had the responsibility to select those electors. Not the president, not the governors, not the rich white men in each state.
For whatever reason, the early Americans statesmen decided to change the Presidential election from indirect to direct. And, for whatever reason, they did not go through the constitutional amendment process of getting ¾ of the states to approve. Congress developed some legal workarounds to effect this change. This change means, practically speaking, Americans are voting for their favorite candidate for president. But legally speaking, voters put their X on the name on the ballot, who then instructs the state legislatures to appoint the electors who will then vote for the president. So the Electoral College is still an indirect election, as per the Constitution.
This wonky workaround functioned OK for 200+ years. The workaround had several key dates when certain things had to happen. January 6 is the day to certify the electors. There was a tradition that Congress, after each presidential election, would approve January 6 obligation without much debate. January 6 had become a political formality that had been respected by all political sides. But it was still a legal loophole.
January 6, 2021 was deliberately chosen to amass a demonstration in Washington, D.C. Its goal was to prevent the certification. If the certification was stopped, then, legally speaking, Joe Biden could not become the president — even though he won the most EC votes.
From my side of the TV screen, it seemed the January 6 protesters lost their steam when they breached the Senate chambers. “What do we do next?” they were asking. No one told them to seek out the hiding spots of the Democrats, flush them in the open, and let the emotional rage continue. Mr. Trump needed a reason to declare martial law — and the protesters failed him.
As well, the Republican Congress people were confused. No one told them not to show up later in the evening. With one party not in the chambers, there might be some legal reasons to deem a quorum was not reached, leaving the elector certification unfulfilled — and Mr. Trump as the only legal president.
There would have been enough confusion as to who is in charge. The USA would have been in a constitutional crisis. The Supreme Court would have eventually decided this matter. But there is no guarantee that this partisan body would have deemed January 6 more of a traditional political formality rather than an absolute legal rule to follow, regardless of who forced the situation.
The USA is setting itself up for another constitutional crisis
Some Medium political writers believe the USA is already in a constitutional crisis. Rules are being routinely ignored. Rules will surely be more tested with the November elections.
While ICE has proven itself incapable of subduing Minnesota, it has proven that it is above the law. It can incarcerate anyone on American soil for little reason and give them no legal rights. All the detainees spending a week or so at an ICE detention center, then released, are messages that ICE does have this power. The active political left believes it has hindered ICE, but I believe ICE has succeeded in putting enough fear into the population.
For example, I dare not cross the American border. As a Canadian who is advocating for the US constitution to be replaced, my conversation with a US border guard could turn into an inspection of my website. Then I would be whisked to an ICE detention center — and my family will have no idea how to find me.
If ICE cannot subdue Minnesota, then what is its function in these turbulent times?
Here is how ICE can be used in its current form. On election day, deploy ICE platoons to monitor election stations in urban centers of swing states, like Phoenix, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Use the excuse to keep illegal immigrants from voting. Have the ICE police take pictures of the voters. That’s all! Enough voters will not stand in a voting line just to prevent an arrest from ICE later.
Of course, there are election laws that forbid that kind of intimidation. But these laws will not stop the Republicans. After a swing state goes Republican because of a lower urban voter turnout, the courts are unlikely to overturn that result. Democracies want quick answers to “Who won?”.
Am I right? I don’t know. But something is up. We should expect something like this ICE deployment at election stations. Maybe three or four somethings, making it chaotic for the political left to organize their opposition after election day.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a short-term solution for the USA. My prediction is the Republicans will try to go oligarchy, but they will fail. My rationale is that their leader has not had many life successes before he got into politics. He seems incapable of putting a complex plan, with many moving parts, together. Oligarchies do not come together by wishing and hoping and bluff and bluster.
The necessary partisan police force is not yet ready. It is not managed well.
And the current resolve of the American political left is strong.
The Real Reason for this Article
Minnesota Did Not Fall is a bashing article. Like many other political writers on Medium, I am criticizing the current system.
I much prefer writing articles about building a new democracy.
But my bashing articles get about five times the traction as my building articles. I am using the popularity of bashing to generate interest for my TDG-Zoom meetings.
I am asking this article’s extra readers to look beyond November 2026.
I am asking you to inspect Tiered Democratic Governance a possible solution for USA’s quagmire.
Realize your current role in this quagmire. Today’s active left-wing political players are roaming the halls of power, attending meetings, organizing protests, making lots of noise, and getting in the face of the possible future oligarchs. These active players have an important role to play to hold a broken system together. But they do not have the time to inspect new ways. They do not have the time to be on Medium.
If you are a Medium regular, you are not an active political player. But you have the time and interest to build this new democracy, a task that the future will regard as more important than the work of the active players.
The TDG will ask only 10 hours a month from you. You can still cheer for your favorite team on the playing field as you are building this new democracy.
On May 12, I will be hosting my second round of TDG-Zoom meetings. The first topic will be The 12 Limitations of Western Democracy.
The link below leads you to the times of these meetings plus their Zoom links.
https://tiereddemocraticgovernance.org/tdg_zoom_meeting.php
I invite you to this Zoom meeting. There are four times available for you to attend. There will be other Zoom meetings with different topics.
And the TDG website is always available for a free read. No paywall, no subscription, no advertising, no coffee money. The TDG is too important to the world than for me to make a little side money.
Publish on Medium 2026
TDG & Zoom: Finding Connection, Purpose, & Hope
