This article should be quite unpopular!
I had a little Mastodon conversation with a couple of Zohran Mamdani fans. I dropped this line: “He will disappoint you.”
Then they dropped on me. How dare I criticize Mr. Mamdani when he has not even had a month to effect his vision on the people he governs? I tried explaining that we are always disappointed when we anoint a rookie politician as messiah to govern us. History says Mr. Mamdani would be no different. And that is why we need to build a new democracy.
Well, I got dropped again. How dare I waste Mastodon space talking about a new democracy when the USA needs to battle the current governing political party? In their minds, I was almost as bad as the back-room operatives in the Republican Party, who are trying to effect an oligarchy.
Here are the three likely outcomes for Mr. Mamdani’s first term:
1) He has more rhetoric than drive to implement that rhetoric. This would not be the first time a politician has said things to win elections.
2) He may have the right intentions, but he will run into big forces to oppose him. Winning the election and pushing against big forces are two different skill sets. He might not have the latter skills. Most voters will not see much difference between Outcome 1 and Outcome 2.
3) He might be good at pushing against big forces. But many of these changes will take years to produce positive effects. At the end of Mamdani’s first term, many voters will not see much difference between Outcomes 1, 2, & 3.
If Mr. Mamdani finds a second term as New York City’s mayor, his second victory will be more due to forces other than whatever good he has accomplished in the first term. Not enough voters will reward him for Outcome 3 to ensure victory. And if he is defeated, his victorious opponents are likely to cut the strings on his unfinished projects.
But I have digressed. Time to get back to the title of this article.
There are many political writers on Medium putting their faith in the Democratic Party to save the USA.
So naïve.
The Biden Presidency
Let’s assume that, in 2021, we had given the Biden administration these two tasks:
1) Reduce the number of people voting for Donald Trump in 2024.
2) Convince some of the non-voters in 2020 to vote for the Democrats in 2024.
These are clear, measurable objectives. If you want, call them “key performance indicators.” How did the Democratic Party do?
Let’s see. Mr. Trump got 74 million votes in 2020. He got 77 million votes in 2024. That’s a fail, right?
In 2020, 78 million eligible voters chose not to vote. In 2024, 86 million eligible voters chose not to vote. That too is a fail.
Now we can get into all sorts of blame gaming as to why the right trends did not happen. I could write a Medium article or two (and I have). But regardless of the many opinions, the bottom line is that the Democratic Party did not complete these two tasks.
If we hired a truck driver to move a load from Point A to Point B and he went to Point C, he would be fired. All his great truck driving skills mean little with a Point C destination.
There should be no excuses for the Democratic Party. In many other workplaces, they would be fired.
The Epstein Files
Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. The Biden administration ran from 2021 to 2024. It had the Epstein files on their desks of justice for all that time. They did nothing with these files.
Sorry, I need to twist the knife a little more:
Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. The Biden administration ran from 2021 to 2024. It had the Epstein files on their desks of justice for all that time. They did nothing with these files.
And just a bit more twisting:
Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. The Biden administration ran from 2021 to 2024. It had the Epstein files on their desks of justice for all that time. They did nothing with these files.
Now, why did I tell you the same thing three times?
The Biggest Democratic Misstep
As I was watching the Republican primaries in 2016, I was expecting Donald Trump to place a respectable fourth place, bow out, and go back to his reality TV show. But he started as the front-runner and stayed that way: there was an obvious shift in American political culture many of us, including Mr. Trump, did not see. He only resonated with the times.
And it seemed to me that the left-wing media were trying to help him win by giving him all the attention to his outlandish remarks — and ignoring the more saner voices of John Kasich and Jeb Bush. It was almost as if the buffoon won the primary, the Democrats would automatically win the presidency. There were vested interests from the political left who were hoping — and possibly working for — the Trump victory in the Republican primary.
I’m not so sure the Democratic Party has moved from “We are not the Republicans” as its main campaign slogan of 2016. For sure, the Republican Party has given the Democrats more ammunition to continue with this slogan.
It’s Systemic
Medium has many political commentators who have never spent any time with the inner workings of a political party. I have been on the inside. I have seen and felt the forces. I participated in ways incongruent with my character. I explain these internal forces in Life Inside a Political Party.
In case you don’t want to read this article, let me summarize it for you.
In any viable political party anywhere in the world, there is a big internal contest to reach the top. But not everyone can reach the top. So the players will ally with other players to advance their position to be as close to the top as possible. Eventually, there will be a shift. Being close to the top has more political opportunities than being in the middle.
There is a whole psychology behind this alliance-building competition. However, applying that psychology takes time and energy away from trying to solve real problems in the world. In other words, if a player does not play the political rise game, that player does not get to solve real problems.
As long as we have political parties, the striving to rise will dominate any good intentions.
Let me say this in different words: If you were somehow cast as a high-ranking Democrat, you too would be beset by the same forces that are stalling the current high-ranking Democrats.
More Systemic Stuff
The Democratic Party did not do anything with the Epstein files because too many high-ranking Democrats and prestigious members of the donor class are in those files. And any political party will protect its more important members as long as politically possible.
Most political parties know they can ride out a few scandals and still be a viable alternative in the next election. And the scandal of not releasing the Epstein files was smaller than the scandal of actually releasing the files. It makes perfect sense for the Democratic Party to stall in this matter.
Let me say this in different words. If an ambitious member of the Democratic Party wanted to bring the Epstein files into more public attention between 2021 and 2024, he/she would have been pulled into a back room and told: “Too many of our people’s names are in these files. You should drop this matter.”
The Epstein stall leads to one of my axioms:
“A political party works more for itself than the society it governs.”
Do you agree?
In Chapter 2 of my TDG book, I list 12 Limitations of Western Democracy. All political parties, including the Democratic Party, are subject to these forces. These forces will override whoever is selected as party leader.
Trying to ask a political party to change its ways is like trying to tell lions to stop hunting and eating gazelles and become vegetarians.
The Aftermath of 2028
At the time of this writing, it is uncertain if the USA will become a true oligarchy. I expect the R’s will try to suspend the 2026 election. Whether they can successfully attain their true oligarchy, I will not say.
But let’s assume the 2026 elections are held. Of the 86 million eligible Americans who did not vote in 2024, a third of them should find their way to the polls. We are already seeing signs of this happening with surprising D wins in “little elections.” This trend will produce a rather conclusive 65–35 split for the Not-R’s vs. the R’s. That should send a clear message. Right?
And that clear message will move into the 2028 election. It is plausible for a Not-R presidency and a Congress composing 70% of Not-R members. Half of the Republican state governors will also fall to the Not-R’s.
This BIG UPSET is possible. Not even the best of gerrymandering or voter suppression techniques can give the R’s a chance of victory with this political shift.
What Happens After the Victory?
Well, more systemic stuff will happen.
And with a clear 2028 mandate, the Democrats can really affect the changes the American people want. But here is how I see the system takes over:
1. The Democratic Party (the Not-R party) will first be beset by the usual challenges of governing. These challenges are hard enough.
Now let’s add all this other stuff to this usual burden.
2. The Democratic Party will be busy dismantling the many errant decisions made by the Trump 2.0 administration. Like rebuilding institutions and finding competent people to work for and lead those institutions.
3. The USA will not have the trust of the rest of the world. It will be harder to move chess pieces on the geopolitical board. Not even a big D victory can bring this trust back.
4. The USA is probably heading for an economic depression as international channels of American commerce are slowly reduced, and the loss of status as the world’s reserve currency.
5. The Democratic Party will and should be putting many high-ranking Republicans in prison. This big task will sap energy and time away from other political challenges.
6. The 30% of Republicans remaining in Congress will be an obstacle to passing effective legislation. The D’s cannot afford to lead in a similar way as Trump 2.0, meaning due process must be followed. Unfortunately, our 19th-century legislatures are too slow for the 21st century.
7. The decisively decisive Democratic victory of 2028 will not bite that much into the psyche of the 30% of Americans who wanted the Republican oligarchy. This demographic will still be a simmering fire. It will be waiting for the right conditions and leader to rise again.
8. Like the 1776 colonists rising against the British, a few of the MAGA patriots will take on the role of freedom fighting. A few Waco-like incidents will distract the Democrats from what they need to be doing.
9. Dealing with the saner side of the 30% will also be a challenge. Maybe the D’s should be delicate in their messaging: maybe they should be more aggressive. How can the D’s unmaga Maga? My solution is to offer a society with more opportunities and prosperity for the masses. But this is a long-term solution, and the Democrats need the approval and donations of the donor class.
10. Then there will still be an internal war within the Democratic Party. The progressive wing and the non-socialist wing will be battling each other behind the scenes. There will not be enough unity to pass the legislation that needs to be passed.
11. That informal contest of rising closer to the top will still dominate the internal workings of the Democratic Party. The main players will be spending time and energy maintaining and enhancing their position in the party.
12. I doubt the D’s have any kind of master plan for these challenges. If they find a destination, they have no route planned to get there. They will make things up as they go.
13. By 2030, many left-leaning Americans will be frustrated that not enough has been done by the new Democratic administration. Many will become non-voters in the 2032 election.
14. MAGA will still be a political force, not seeing any reason to change its reasoning. It will bide its time. They almost got their oligarchy in 2026; they have learned some lessons.
I hope that a few readers can look at this list and see that the failures of American democracy are systemic. This is why no individual can rise to make things better. This is why no mass activism will convince/coerce the Democratic Party to change its instinctual ways.
The Evolution of the Democratic Party
The above list is indeed depressing. But I’m going to twist the knife a little more. The Democrats will be too busy to work on anything on this next list.
1. The chances for electoral reform are small. Do not expect the popular vote to replace the electoral college as selection for the president. Do not expect a fairer representation in the Senate.
2. Do not expect ranked-choice ballots or proportional representation, as these electoral systems will allow third parties to become viable contenders. Like aristocrats of feudal times, the Democrats, deep down inside, do not want competition for political power. The internal party elections are enough of a contest. Especially if they see the next election cycle as an easy win.
3. Campaign finance reform is a great wish. Passing such legislation will be difficult. Enforcing that legislation will be more difficult. Even with lots of talk and some action, the people with money will still have undue influence over the people with less money.
4. The Democrats have been successful in setting up the Republicans as a weak foil. Why should the Democrats change this arrangement?
5. The Democrats know you cannot move your vote. It need not address your concerns to get that vote again. What are you going to do? Vote for the Republicans? Write more articles telling the Democrats to change their ways?
6. In essence, a Democrat victory in 2028 will eventually lift the lid on the pot of simmering MAGA soup. The USA will have another repeat of the last 10 years. Is that what you want?
I’m not a believer in a deep state managing the scenes behind the scenes. But if there is such a deep state, it has convinced too many people to fight for meaningless changes. And the deep state would have its tentacles in both parties.
Real Change
My second list should convince readers that serious change is not going to happen. If a reader did not get this message, I shall rephrase:
Popular changes to American democracy will take a long time to make. These changes may be stuck in Overton limbo for a long time. For example, it has been 26 years since the public started serious discussion about the Electoral College.
Even if these changes are made, the results might not be what we expected. Why spend decades advocating for such changes? For example, did American democracy improve with the 17th Amendment? Show me the proof of why 2026 USA is so much better than 1910 USA.
If we are to spend time and effort to effect change, why not work for a BIG change?
Tiered Democratic Governance (TDG)
The TDG is my alternative democracy. I got the insights for the TDG while working for a Canadian political party from 1986 to 1992. I have been working on the TDG project since 1997. I have been on Medium since 2019, promoting it.
The biggest feature of the TDG is that it has no political parties. Political parties, with their protective alliances to move certain people higher in the pecking order, rob society of the many solutions that we so need.
Other features of the TDG are: 1) tiered, indirect elections, 2) training citizens to vote for good character and capacity for governance, 3) a consultative approach to decision making, and 4) an advisory board guiding the elected TDG bodies to better decisions. The TDG website provides more details if you want.
The TDG cannot be built by many citizens lobbying the current power structures to build the TDG for us. That power structure does not want this new democracy — which is just the reason for you to build it.
And besides, the TDG requires a cooperative political culture. We will not get this culture by combating the current political structure. The early TDG builders must first learn some new skills in TDG governance to make this new way work. The early TDG builders will pass those skills and culture to the next generation of TDG representatives. The TDG will be built by example, not by rhetoric.
If you want to rattle the cages of the Democratic Party, the best way to get them to listen to you is to build the TDG. When this TDG starts growing, the Democratic Party will eventually realize: “We have to get our act together or we will be replaced by this TDG thing.” That will scare the Party.
And because of that threat, the Democratic Party could evolve in a positive way. If so, you still win! Right?
Like wealthy people working both political parties to serve them, you can work both sides of the fence. You can continue with your traditional efforts to reform American democracy. And you can spend about 10 hours a month building a kinder, wiser democracy.
I suspect that when the Democratic Party takes the TDG seriously, you will realize that the TDG is a superior way to govern. You will be giving more allegiance to the TDG.
If you continue to spend all your spare time and energy on only reforming the current system, it won’t reform.
Don’t wait for 2030 to say to yourself: That Dave guy from Canada was right.
You already know I am right. Start building the TDG in 2026.
Published on Medium 2026
