A prophecy of America’s near future
I really should stop making political predictions. I called the November 5 election a fairly decisive win for Ms. Harris with accompanying Democratic senators and representatives. I was wrong.
I think I’m coming to an understanding as to why 86 million American voters chose not to vote. But the fog is still foggy for me. The Democratic candidate and campaign had flaws, but other candidate/campaign arrangements would have had their own flaws. If only 10% of these 86 million voters had cast a D vote, Ms. Harris would be president. While this result would have had a whole bunch of lefties dancing in the street, it would likely have led to accusations of election fraud and significant violence by the radical right. Maybe it’s better that the Republicans can now fall on their own sword.
Having been wrong, I wonder why I’m making another prediction. But my prediction is quite a bit different than the usual dystopia writers on today’s Medium who are predicting fascism or the next civil war.
The Republicans seem to be antagonizing the political left to do something silly. When the left takes their bait, that will give the excuse for the right to clamp down. Unlike the 1930 Germans or the post WW2 citizens in Eastern Europe, I don’t think Americans of the center and left will be so easily cowed into submission. Prisons might be fuller than they are today, and maybe 100 protesters might be shot, but the backlash will be loud and long. Will the Republicans double down or back down?
I’m betting on backing down. There are social, political, and economic forces shaping the Republican action plan. Actions like forcing prisoners to pick our lettuce will mean prisoners spitting on our food. Rank-and-file Republicans will not take kindly to a disrupted or unsafe food supply. The illegal immigrants will need to get back to work.
So not being able to take the USA to a full-fledged oligarchy, the Republicans will need to emphasize their other political mission. That mission is making high-ranking Republicans richer than they were before. All this talk about de-swampifying federal agencies is mostly a cover for moving money around, from you-know-where to you-know-who.
But the high-ranking Republicans still need the support of rank-and-file Republicans to carry out this mission. Rather than sharing the plunder, the high-ranking Republicans will take a different path.
Here’s my hypothesis: history will repeat itself.
McCarthyism
This era of American history shows how a well-intentioned government sentiment can go awry.
For those not familiar with this post-WW2 history, US and Canadian governments set to uncover Soviet agents actively or awaitingly carrying out certain Soviet orders. Stealing western technology was the main task, and it had been said that the first Soviet atomic bombs were based on American designs. Some spies were rooted out.
This wiki article gives a good story of these times.
After the real spies were put out of action, Senator Joseph McCarthy made his political mission to find more spies.
The next targets were vibrant communist movements in USA and Canada at this time. With supposed sympathies for Russia and China, communist members were easy targets for oppression. They were scared to meet together. When the communists were effectively reduced as a political force, McCarthy and his allies needed to find more spies.
They went after the Hollywood. Any actor that had left-wing tendencies were put on a blacklist. They had trouble finding acting work. No sense on giving such actors any more screen time where average Americans could get the wrong ideas. The Hollywood studios folded to the then politically correct activism of McCarthyism.
When the blacklist for actors filled up, McCarthy and allies expanded it. They looked for almost any reason to put someone on that list, like attending a Pete Seeger concert. Or being a friend of someone who attended a Pete Seeger concert. Ambitious people learned to be careful of the company they kept.
When some authority in government deemed a citizen a person as a possible spy, that person’s name went on the list. No notice. No trial. No defence. No appeal.
Ten million Americans and one million Canadians had their name on this blacklist.
Here are the repercussions those on the blacklist faced:
· Denial of passports
· Interrogation when entering the US or Canada
· Denial of promotion
· Denial of certain jobs
· Denial of career paths
· Denial of providing services to government
· Loss of job, with no explanation ever given.
· More red tape if a new business was started.
Being on the blacklist did not mean a total loss of freedom. The listee may not be able to teach high school history, but he still could be janitor of the high school. There was a loss of opportunities for people on the list. Many were not aware they were on it — and wondered why their career had stalled.
This blacklist was created without the aid of computers. Think of a big, big room of rolodex files. Somehow this information moved across the continent at lightening speed to basically take some people’s opportunity without any due democratic or legal process. This all happened in the middle of two of the world’s most vibrant democracies at that time.
Well, when some people’s opportunities are taken away, there’s less competition for important and well-paying jobs. This was good for those not on the blacklist. So McCarthyism had a degree of popularity. But as the blacklist grew, it became sillier and sillier. It seemed almost anyone could be on that list.
Even though Mr. McCarthy shaped government actions for more than a decade, he became regarded as a historical fool.
The blacklist was discarded in government operations by 1960.
Trumpism
The USA is ready set for another round of McCarthyism. No new list is necessary. It is already here.
The American voters’ lists have a field where voters can name their political affiliation. The three main choices are Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Supposedly this feature has some great benefits to aid democracy. The only advantages I can see is that the parties are able to more efficiently market their base for donations and messaging — and find the eligible voters for their primaries. But this affiliation field negates some of the importance of the secret ballot.
Here is one example of how party affiliation could work. A police officer stops a car for speeding. After the officer does the routine checks on driver’s license, vehicle registration, and insurance, there’s another check: party affiliation. A registered Republican gets a warning. A registered Democrat gets a $500 fine and demerits.
Let’s say an American is applying for social security or a disability pension. A Republican gets easy approval. A Democrat gets put on hold.
Or health insurance. When health insurance companies have access to political affiliation, they can target Democrats to deny claims. This satisfies the corporate need to remain solvent and profitable. The Republican government will see no need to fix this problem.
Or a criminal trial. The judge and prosecutor could take a look at the party affiliation to help find the verdict.
I could give more examples, but I think readers get the idea. The party affiliation gives certain people an advantage in American society. Those Republicans who will not be on the gravy train will be happy with this advantage. I expect at least 65m votes for the Republicans in 2028 if the modern version of McCarthyism comes into reality, regardless of how ineptly the second Trump administration governs. In other words, if the Trump administration deliver the McCarthy goodies, the Republican base stays intact.
Conclusion
Political prophesizing is risky. While I’ve been right more often than I’ve been wrong, no one holds the future in their hands. Not even the political elite have the control they claim to have.
Will McCarthyism come back to the USA soon?
I’m giving it a 70% chance. I’m also predicting a lot more infighting in this Republican administration, which could hinder the McCarthy implementation.
But here is one prophecy I am 100% sure of:
If we — the people — don’t start building a new democracy, we should expect more political circuses.
Published on Medium 2024
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Addendum
From my side of the computer screen, it does not seem the Republican Party is using the McCarthy tool. I’m not seeing any economic advantage for the average Trump supporter. So I anticipate the Republican Party is starting to alienate some of its 77m voters.
I was wrong on the McCarthy tool. I could be wrong on the political drift. But if the real plan is no more elections, rich Republicans get to rule forever and poor Republicans are thrown under the bus. And the rich Republicans get richer.
